Tag Archives: cooking

Pullan’s Pieces #2 – Top Drug Sellers by Geo

15 Jul

By Eric Hayes

What do analysts think will be the top 10 drugs in the year 2031 (as searched in GlobalData)?

Top 10 in the US in 2031 (USD Millions)

In the US analyst forecasts for 2031, obesity dominates (with immunology, derm and infection for other TAs). Along with the obesity peptides are 2 small molecules and 2 MAbs. The sales are in the tens of billions.

Top 10 in Europe (USD Millions)

In Europe, along with the obesity drugs and dupixent in derm, we see the oncology ADC Enhertu, the ang2 ophthalmology drug Vabysmo, a CNS CD20, and a GI integrin in the top 10. Sales are in the single digit billions.

Top 10 in Japan (USD Millions)

In Japan, obesity is not visible in the top 10. An anti-infective tops the list, followed by CNS, oncology, GI and including heme disorders. There are companies not in the top 20 for global sales. Most of the top 10 have sales below $1B.

Top 10 in China (USD Millions)

For China, obesity is back in the top 10, but Gardasil, an oncology HPV vaccine tops the list. Local company “fast followers” are apparent and most of the top forecasted drugs are not yet launched (presumably a reflection of the rapidly evolving pharmaceutical environment). To get into the top 10, sales are above $500M.

Conclusion: The marketplace for drugs shows considerable variation in different regions around the world.

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Pullan’s Pieces #1 – Organ on a Chip

1 Jul

Acceleration of laboratory-based technical and computational cross-fertilization, and ethical and cost pressures on regulatory bodies and therapeutic innovators is driving advancements in preclinical human-based technologies.

Organ (Lab)-on-chip (OoC/LoC) is one of the most striking examples of new translational research technology expansion with ~35% CAGR expected over the next decade (below).  

Collaborations between academia and CRO’s are driving improvements in organoid technology for the field of oncology broadly and are expected to improve OoC adoption.  Academic innovation using commercial OoC technology is also advancing applications in specific indications in oncology.  CRO’s continue to build off established uses in ADME and toxicology to explore R&D applications in oncology space and have even combined organ systems to support elaboration of multiple drug parameters in a single assay.

DEALS

The Tara Biosystems – Valo Health deal is a nice example of how an organ-on-a-chip technology approach has driven collaborations, acquisitions and deals:

  • Tara Biosystems and GSK collaborate on CV drug profiling (2019)
  • Valo Health acquires Tara Biosystems for CV OoC platform (2022, ~$75M upfront)
  • Valo and Novo Nordisk sign CV drug discovery deal (2023, $60M upfront, $2.7B total)

Emulate, TissUse and Mimetas have also been backed by strong big pharma collaborations (AstraZeneca, Bayer, Roche) and funding rounds.

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